• Notification Date: 11-02-2025
• Notification No: N/A

India and Thailand face major risks from Trump's tariff threat: Economists warn

Economists at global banks like Morgan Stanley and Nomura Holdings have identified India and Thailand as the most vulnerable countries to President Trump's proposed reciprocal tariffs. A threat by President Trump to impose tariffs on countries that have higher levies on imports into the United States would affect these emerging Asian economies, and India and Thailand are prime targets because they already impose much higher tariffs on U.S. goods than what the U.S. charges them.

India's average tariff on US goods is above 10 percentage points more than what the U.S. charges on Indian imports. This places it at a risk of losing the extra 4 to 6 percentage points in duties, analysts say. In this connection, India and Thailand are expected to fast track their talks with the U.S. to stay away from all forms of trade disputes.

Proposed tariffs, which Trump claims could be in place soon, are part of his drive for fair trade. The tariff hikes may pressure the export-dependent economies of India and Thailand, which are already looking to boost imports from the U.S. ahead of upcoming summits.

The effects will depend on the specifics of Trump's policy, but are likely to spread across defense, energy, and agriculture sectors as the trade war intensifies.